Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

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Discussion and Analysis > Cautionary Factors That May Affect Future Results

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• Foreign Currency: Our international food and tobacco subsidiaries conduct their businesses in local currency and, for purposes of financial reporting, their results are translated into U.S. dollars based on average exchange rates prevailing during a reporting period. During times of a strengthening U.S. dollar, our reported net revenues and operating income will be reduced because the local currency will translate into fewer U.S. dollars.
• Competition and Economic Downturns: Each of our consumer products subsidiaries is subject to intense competition, changes in consumer preferences and local economic conditions. To be successful, they must continue to:

The willingness of consumers to purchase premium cigarette brands and premium food and beverage brands depends in part on local economic conditions. In periods of economic uncertainty, consumers tend to purchase more private label and other economy brands, and the volume of our consumer products subsidiaries could suffer accordingly.

Our finance subsidiary, PMCC, holds investments in finance leases, principally in transportation (including aircraft), power generation and manufacturing equipment and facilities. Its lessees are also subject to intense competition and economic conditions. If counterparties to PMCC’s leases fail to manage through difficult economic and competitive conditions, PMCC may have to increase its allowance for losses, which would adversely affect our profitability.

• Grocery Trade Consolidation: As the retail grocery trade continues to consolidate and retailers grow larger and become more sophisticated, they demand lower pricing and increased promotional programs. Further, these customers are reducing their inventories and increasing their emphasis on private label products. If Kraft fails to use its scale, marketing expertise, branded products and category leadership positions to respond to these trends, its volume growth could slow or it may need to lower prices or increase promotional support of its products, any of which would adversely affect our profitability.
• Continued Need to Add Food and Beverage Products in Faster-Growing and More Profitable Categories: The food and beverage industry’s growth potential is constrained by population growth. Kraft’s success depends in part on its ability to grow its business faster than populations are growing in the markets that it serves. One way to achieve that growth is to enhance its portfolio by adding products that are in faster-growing and more profitable categories. If Kraft does not succeed in making these enhancements, its volume growth may slow, which would adversely affect our profitability.
• Strengthening Brand Portfolios Through Acquisitions and Divestitures: One element of the growth strategy of our consumer products subsidiaries is to strengthen their brand portfolios through active programs of selective acquisitions and divestitures. These subsidiaries are constantly investigating potential acquisition candidates and from time to time Kraft sells businesses that are outside its core categories or that do not meet its growth or profitability targets. Acquisition opportunities are limited and acquisitions present risks of failing to achieve efficient and effective integration, strategic objectives and anticipated revenue improvements and cost savings. There can be no assurance that we will be able to continue to acquire attractive businesses on favorable terms or that all future acquisitions will be quickly accretive to earnings.
• Food Raw Material Prices: The raw materials used by our food businesses are largely commodities that experience price volatility caused by external conditions, commodity market fluctuations, currency fluctuations and changes in governmental agricultural programs. Commodity price changes may result in unexpected increases in raw material and packaging costs (which are significantly affected by oil costs), and our operating subsidiaries may be unable to increase their prices to offset these increased costs without suffering reduced volume, net revenues and operating companies income. We do not fully hedge against changes in commodity prices and our hedging strategies may not work as planned.
• Food Safety, Quality and Health Concerns: We could be adversely affected if consumers in Kraft’s principal markets lose confidence in the safety and quality of certain food products. Adverse publicity about these types of concerns, whether or not valid, may discourage consumers from buying Kraft’s products or cause production and delivery disruptions. Recent publicity concerning the health implications of obesity and trans-fatty acids could also reduce consumption of certain of Kraft’s products. In addition, Kraft may need to recall some of its products if they become adulterated or misbranded. Kraft may also be liable if the consumption of any of its products causes injury. A widespread product recall or a significant product liability judgment could cause products to be unavailable for a period of time and a loss of consumer confidence in Kraft’s food products and could have a material adverse effect on Kraft’s business and results.
• Limited Access to Commercial Paper Market: As a result of actions by credit rating agencies during 2003, ALG currently has limited access to the commercial paper market, and may have to rely on its revolving credit facilities.
• Asset Impairment: We periodically calculate the fair value of our goodwill and intangible assets to test for impairment. This calculation may be affected by the market conditions noted above, as well as interest rates and general economic conditions. If an impairment is determined to exist, we will incur impairment losses, which will reduce our earnings.
• IRS Challenges to PMCC Leases: Recently, the IRS has proposed to disallow certain transactions, and may in the future challenge and disallow several more, of PMCC’s leveraged leases based on recent Revenue Rulings and a recent IRS Notice addressing specific types of leveraged leases (lease-in/ lease-out transactions, qualified technological equipment transactions, and sale-in/lease-out transactions). PMCC believes that the position and supporting case law described in the Revenue Rulings and the IRS Notice, as well as those asserted in the proposed adjustments, are incorrectly applied to PMCC’s transactions and that its leveraged leases are factually and legally distinguishable in material respects from the IRS’s position. PMCC and ALG intend to vigorously defend against any challenges based on that position through administrative appeals and litigation, if necessary, and ALG believes that, given the strength of PMCC’s position, it should ultimately prevail. However, should PMCC’s position not be upheld, PMCC may have to accelerate the payment of significant amounts of federal income tax and lower its earnings to reflect the recalculation of the income from the affected leveraged leases.